How Donald Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in Gaza Yet Faces Challenges With Putin Over Ukraine
Reports of an upcoming American-Russian leadership summit have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.
Only a few days after President Trump announced he intended to meet Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been put off without a new date.
A preliminary meeting by the two nations' top diplomats has been called off, too.
"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump informed reporters at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I'll see what happens."
- Trump states he did not want a 'wasted meeting' after plan for Putin talks postponed
- Disappointment in Kyiv as Zelensky leaves Washington without results
The on-again, off-again summit is another development in the president's attempts to broker an conclusion to hostilities in Ukraine – a subject of increased attention for the American leader after he orchestrated a ceasefire and prisoner exchange deal in Gaza.
During a speech in the North African country recently to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, the president turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.
"We have to get Russia done," he said.
However, the conditions that aligned to make a Middle East success possible for the negotiation team may be difficult to duplicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been raging for almost four years.
Reduced Influence
According to Witkoff, the crucial element to achieving a deal was Israel's decision to attack Hamas negotiators in Qatar. It was a action that infuriated America's Arab allies but gave Trump bargaining power to compel Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into making a deal.
The US president benefited from a history of siding with the Israeli state since his first term, encompassing his decision to move the US embassy to the contested city, to change US policy on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and, in recent times, his backing for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.
The US president, in fact, is more popular among Israelis than their prime minister – a position that gave him special sway over the Israeli leader.
Add in Trump's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the area, and he had a abundant negotiating strength to secure an agreement.
In the Ukraine war, on the other hand, Trump has much less influence. Over the past nine months, he has vacillated between efforts to strong-arm Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.
Trump has warned to impose additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to provide the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that doing so could disrupt the world's financial stability and further escalate the war.
Meanwhile, the US leader has publicly berated Ukraine's president, temporarily cutting off information exchange with the country and suspending arms shipments to the nation - then to back off in the wake of concerned European allies who warn a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the whole area.
The president loves to tout his ability to sit down and negotiate agreements, but his personal discussions with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders haven't seemed to move the war any closer to a resolution.
Putin may actually be exploiting the US leader's wish for a deal – and belief in direct negotiations - as a method of influencing him.
During the summer, Putin agreed to a summit in the US state just as it appeared likely that Trump would approve on congressional sanctions package backed by Senate Republicans. That legislation was afterwards delayed.
Last week, as news emerged that the US administration was considering seriously shipping Tomahawk cruise missiles and air defense systems to Ukraine, the president of Russia called the US president who then promoted the potential summit in Budapest.
The next day, Trump hosted Zelensky at the White House, but left without agreements after a reportedly tense meeting.
The US leader insisted that he was not being manipulated by Putin.
"As you are aware, I have been manipulated throughout my career by skilled operators, and I emerged successfully," he remarked.
However the president of Ukraine later made note of the timeline of developments.
"As soon as the matter of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for us – for our nation – Russia quickly became less engaged in diplomacy," he said.
Thus, in a matter of days, Trump has shifted from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to Ukraine to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Putin and confidentially pressuring Zelensky to cede all of Donbas – even land Russian forces has been failed to capture.
He has ultimately settled on advocating a truce along present frontlines – something the Russian government has refused to accept.
On the campaign trail last year, the candidate promised that he could end the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has subsequently abandoned that pledge, admitting that ending the hostilities is proving more difficult than he anticipated.
It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his power – and the difficulty of finding a framework for peace when both parties desires, or is able to, cease hostilities.