NFL Postseason Scenarios: Key Deciders & Outcomes for the Season Finale.
Entering the last weekend of the regular NFL campaign, just two play-off spots are still up for grabs. Yet, a great deal more is on the line, such as the highly desired top seeds in both conferences and four division titles.
The schedule makers have crafted a perfect finale, with the two remaining postseason places to be decided in a pair of winner-take-all contests.
NFL Postseason Picture as of Week 18
American Football Conference Rankings
- Denver (13-3)
- New England (13-3)
- Jacksonville (12-4)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7) / Baltimore (8-8)
- Houston (11-5)
- Los Angeles Chargers (11-5)
- Buffalo Bills (11-5)
The victor of the Steelers-Ravens contest will claim the #4 spot and a home-field advantage in the wildcard round. At the same time, Buffalo and Los Angeles are set as wildcard teams.
The Texans need a victory coupled with a Jacksonville loss to climb from fifth to the third seed. Denver will earn the #1 ranking with a triumph, but a loss could pave the way for New England or the Jaguars to claim it.
National Football Conference Rankings
- Seattle Seahawks (13-3)
- Chicago Bears (11-5)
- Philadelphia (11-5)
- Carolina Panthers (8-8) / Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9)
- San Francisco (12-4)
- Los Angeles Rams (11-5)
- Green Bay (9-6)
The NFC South is up for grabs by the winner of the Panthers-Buccaneers matchup, earning them the #4 position. However, the Panthers could still win the division even with a defeat, contingent on other outcomes.
Green Bay are locked into the seventh spot. The marquee matchup, though, is the battle for the #1 seed in the NFC between Seattle and the 49ers, with a week off and home-field advantage hanging in the balance.
Understanding the NFL Play-Off Format
The #1 team in each conference receives a crucial first-round bye and home games throughout the postseason.
During the Wild Card round, the other six playoff teams face off: the #2 team hosts the seventh, #3 plays #6, and #4 faces #5.
In the Divisional Round, the top seeds join the fray, hosting the lowest surviving team. The conference title games are then hosted by the best remaining team, highlighting the critical value of securing that #1 ranking.
Win or Go Home in the AFC North
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens (01:20, Monday)
This fierce rivalry reaches its climax in the last contest of the regular season. The divisional title and a postseason spot on the line, this is a true win-or-go-home scenario.
Pittsburgh have been inconsistent all year, while Baltimore started poorly but are still in contention. Player availability could be decisive: The Steelers may miss star receiver DK Metcalf, while Baltimore's signal-caller their MVP QB is questionable with a health issue.
Running back Derrick Henry could be the x-factor for Baltimore in what promises to be a physical, low-scoring battle.
Battle for #1 in the NFC
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (01:00, Sunday)
Not only the NFC West is at stake when Seattle travels to the 49ers. The winner secures the conference's #1 spot and the path to the championship game that it provides.
This matchup features an high-powered San Francisco attack against a dominant Seattle defense. With QB Brock Purdy came back, the 49ers have been the NFL's top offense. Conversely, the Seahawks' unit is ranked second best in the league.
Seattle quarterback Sam Darnold must avoid costly turnovers that have haunted him this season. Whoever comes out on top earns a huge advantage for the playoff run.
The NFC South's Uncertain Finish
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (21:30 Saturday)
Neither team comes into this game with much momentum. The Buccaneers have lost four straight, while the Panthers have missed chances to clinch the title.
The Panthers it's straightforward: a victory gets them in. For Tampa Bay, the situation is more complex. Even with a win, they require help from the Atlanta-New Orleans game to claim the divisional championship.
AFC's Top Seed Up for Grabs
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans (18:00, Sunday)
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (21:25, Sunday)
Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos (21:25, Sunday)
The Denver Broncos control their destiny for the AFC's top seed. A win over a L.A. Chargers team expected to sit key players seals it.
Should Denver falter, the opportunity arises for the Patriots. A Patriots win combined with a Broncos loss would give the top seed to Bill Belichick's team.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are the long shot. They need a triumph and losses by the Broncos and Patriots to pull off an unlikely rise to the top. More pressingly, a Jaguars loss could see them passed by the Texans in the AFC South.
Full Slate of Final Week Games
Saturday, 3 January
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (21:30)
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (01:00, Sunday)
Sunday, 4 January
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons (18:00)
Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals (18:00)
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings (18:00)
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants (18:00)
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (18:00)
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans (18:00)
New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills (21:25)
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (21:25)
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears (21:25)
Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos (21:25)
Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders (21:25)
Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams (21:25)
Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles (21:25)
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers (01:20, Monday)
