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The polls are open for parliamentary elections in Holland, with current polling data indicating that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their win the most seats, although experts suggest PVV is unlikely of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which previously pulled off a surprise first-place finish and established a multi-party all-conservative government that lasted barely a year, is currently slightly leading in the polls and is projected to win between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-member parliament.

Nevertheless, PVV's support has dipped since 2023, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with Wilders, who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in the summer amid disagreements concerning his radical anti-refugee plans.

Major Parties and Projections

At the end of a election period dominated by topics such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the country's severe housing crisis, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, expected to gain between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the centrist D66, predicted to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is anticipated to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the Freedom Party, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to lose seats, with several facing heavy losses.

Electoral System and Political Division

Under the proportional Dutch system, gaining just 0.67% of the national vote earns a party one MP. Among the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – which include parties for the over-50s, youth parties, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – up to 16 could enter the legislature.

This high degree of fragmentation ensures that no one party is ever likely to win a majority, and Holland has been ruled by multi-party governments – often including four parties in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the PVV becomes the largest party yet is shut out of government. But, opponents and experts say that first place does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the final outcome is uncertain and coalition talks may require months, political observers indicate that after the most extreme government in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a inclusive coalition headed by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, opened at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9pm. A typically reliable exit poll is expected shortly after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will test potential governing alliances that could command a majority in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must face a vote of confidence in the house before taking office.